{"product_id":"estimative-intelligence-in-european-foreign-policymaking-learning-lessons-from-an-era-of-surprise-paperback","title":"Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise - Paperback","description":"\u003cdiv\u003e\u003cp style=\"text-align: right;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https:\/\/reportcopyrightinfringement.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eReport copyright infringement\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e\u003cp\u003eby \u003cb\u003eChristoph Meyer\u003c\/b\u003e (Editor), \u003cb\u003eEva Michaels\u003c\/b\u003e (Editor), \u003cb\u003eNikki Ikani\u003c\/b\u003e (Editor)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eBack Jacket\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eAssesses estimative intelligence and warnings as an integral part of foreign policy across three major contemporary cases of surprise This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting and expert open sources, and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises. Christoph Meyer is Professor of European and International Politics at King's College London. Eva Michaels is Beatriu de Pinós Fellow at the Barcelona Institute of International Studies. Nikki Ikani is Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University. Aviva Guttmann is Lecturer in Strategy and Intelligence at Aberystwyth University. Michael S. Goodman is Professor of Intelligence and International Affairs and Head of the Department of War Studies at King's College London.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eAuthor Biography\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChristoph Meyer is a Professor of European and International Politics at King's College London. He authored with De Franco and Otto \u003ci\u003eWarning about War: Conflict, Persuasion and Foreign Policy\u003c\/i\u003e (Cambridge University Press, 2020), which won the 2021 ISA best book award. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEva Michaels is a Beatriu de Pinós Fellow at the Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internacionals. Her research has been published in the \u003ci\u003eJournal of Common Market Studies, Media, War \u0026amp; Conflict\u003c\/i\u003e and \u003ci\u003eIntelligence and National Security\u003c\/i\u003e. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNikki Ikani is Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University. She has published in the field intelligence, International Relations and European foreign policy and is the author of \u003ci\u003eCrisis and Change in European Foreign Policy\u003c\/i\u003e (Manchester University Press, 2021). \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAviva Guttmann is a Lecturer in Strategy and Intelligence at Aberystwyth University. She is the author of \u003ci\u003eThe Origins of International Counterterrorism\u003c\/i\u003e (Brill, 2018) and contributed several articles to refereed academic journals of history, intelligence, strategy, and security \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMichael S. Goodman is Professor of Intelligence and International Affairs in the Department of War Studies, King's College London and Visiting Professor at the Norwegian Defence Intelligence School. He has published widely in the field of intelligence history, including most recently \u003ci\u003eThe Official History of the Joint Intelligence Committee, Volume I: From the Approach of the Second World War to the Suez Crisis\u003c\/i\u003e (Routledge, 2015), which was chosen as one of The Spectator's books of the year. He is series editor for \u003ci\u003eIntelligence and Security\u003c\/i\u003e for Hurst\/Columbia University Press; and for \u003ci\u003eIntelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare\u003c\/i\u003e for Edinburgh University Press; and is a member of the editorial boards for five journals. He is currently on secondment to the Cabinet Office where he is the Official Historian of the Joint Intelligence Committee.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eNumber of Pages:\u003c\/strong\u003e 256\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eDimensions:\u003c\/strong\u003e 0.76 x 9.21 x 6.14 IN\u003c\/div\u003e\n            \u003cdiv\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003ePublication Date:\u003c\/strong\u003e August 31, 2024\u003c\/div\u003e\n            ","brand":"BooksCloud","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47584460243165,"sku":"9781399505529","price":62.69,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0811\/9867\/8237\/files\/v9ykccfaCH9781399505529.webp?v=1773613037","url":"https:\/\/handfulofbooks.com\/products\/estimative-intelligence-in-european-foreign-policymaking-learning-lessons-from-an-era-of-surprise-paperback","provider":"Handful of Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}